If you or someone you know may be considering suicide or need help, call or text 988.
Flu season really hasn’t started yet, with national numbers still very low. The flu shot this year is okay, but not great - in the Southern Hemisphere, which has its flu season before ours, this year’s shot reduced the risk for hospitalization among high-risk groups by about 35% (last year’s was about 50%). That doesn’t mean you should skip it - 35% is way better than nothing, and reducing the number of people who have regular seasonal flu can help with everything from hospital capacities to reducing the chances of a bird flu pandemic. There is a new live, attenuated nasal spray approved by the FDA for kids and adults, but Mike Osterholm from CIDRAP doesn’t love its effectiveness for adults. If you always skip the jab because of a fear of needles, this one might be for you, but if you are used to getting your annual flu shot, you might want to stick to that one until we see more data on how well it works in adults. Flu shot uptake is still low overall, less than 10% of Americans have gotten theirs this year, but it’s still somewhat early for maximum flu protection. We generally recommend waiting until flu numbers start to rise, or by Halloween. If you’re a procrastinator who’s willing but not very motivated to go out of your way to get jabbed, do it whenever you can, and get your updated COVID shot at the same time!
Sources: Osterholm Update, YLE
When storms like Hurricane Milton don't hit as hard as expected, there's a risk that people might start underestimating future storms. It's similar to how people react to public health warnings—if the last flu season was mild, some might skip their next flu shot. But just because one storm or flu season isn’t as bad, that doesn’t mean the next one won’t be worse. The key for public health experts and meteorologists alike is to show our work, share our level of uncertainty, and then if we have individual concerns, consider sharing them while making it clear that they’re our own. With Milton, for example, there was a wide band where the hurricane might make landfall. It turned out that the initial predictions were actually pretty spot on, but sharing the uncertainty allowed people north and south of the area to prepare appropriately and decide whether to evacuate. Sharing our concern as individuals can be key, too. A viral video of a meteorologist getting choked up on-air while reporting on the system’s intensity might have done more to convince Floridians to evacuate than any of the actual scientific info that he was reading. Much like public health, it’s a balancing act to share the risks and the uncertainties so that the public retains trust in those reporting the science. But downplaying a potential deadly storm to avoid overreaction could jeopardize lives, and most Floridians, at least, know that mother nature is both hard to predict and a force to be reckoned with.
Dr. Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist that we regularly read and re-post in this newsletter, shares more on this theme of the similarities between weather forecasts and public health. Really, both are about sharing the science, imperfect as it may be, in such a way that the public can protect themselves: