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How contagious is measles, really?

Plus, noro still at record highs, flu finally on the downswing, and more on egg prices...

March 4, 2025

Bird Flu News:

  • New Jersey reported an H5 flu cluster in feral cats, who may have had contact with wild birds. (NJDH)
  • More raw cat food has been recalled due to H5N1 contamination after multiple pet cats have fallen ill. (Independent)
  • Ohio’s poultry farms have been hit hardest in 2025, with one human case and 14.5 million birds culled, more than double the next highest state. (OCJ)

Measles News:

  • The West TX outbreak has grown to 159 cases, plus 4 so far this year in travelers that aren’t affiliated with the outbreak. (TX DSHS)
  • International travelers have brought measles cases back to Kentucky, the Philadelphia area, Seattle, Austin, Houston, and Los Angeles. (CIDRAP)
  • NYC has a second measles case, as well. (NYC.gov)
  • After a school reported a case of Rubella (German Measles), the TX state health department walked it back, saying it’s only an antibody positive and more testing is needed. (Statesman)

Health News:

  • Norovirus is still extremely high across the country, with a 21.6% test positivity rate. The Midwest is the biggest hotspot right now, but it’s nationwide. (CDC)
  • The UK’s health agency is warning of a second wave of noro right now, which is key because the US often follows. Multiple strains in circulation sadly means that people may be infected twice in one season. (Outbreak Outlook)
  • This flu season, children are being hospitalized at higher rates. (Washington Post)
  • …but flu is finally decreasing steadily (though still high overall, especially in the Northeast). (YLE)
  • The mystery outbreak in DR Congo may be partly due to a contaminated water source. (CBS)
  • An Australian donor whose rare blood saved the lives of over two million babies has died at age 88. (BBC)

Best Questions:

Will the egg shortage affect flu shot availability? What about the canceled FDA and CDC vaccine meetings?

We’ll start with egg shortages. While it’s true that chicken eggs are used to create millions of vaccine doses each year, there’s no real risk that the bird flu outbreak and egg shortages affecting our grocery shelves will create a flu vaccine shortage this year. There are a few reasons for that: first, there are two types of flu vaccines already available that don’t need any eggs at all, not to mention the mRNA vaccines in development now. Second, the laying hens used to produce eggs for vaccines are kept in extremely biosecure facilities, designed from the start to prevent contamination from wild birds. So, there’s no risk this year to the flu supply from bird flu, though in the long term, we may start to see a broader shift to non-egg-based flu vaccines.

Next, we’ll address the fact that HHS cancelled two key vaccine advisory panel meetings recently, including one for the FDA where experts recommend the strains for next season’s flu shot. The FDA doesn’t actually have to listen to experts, but it would be the first time that they didn’t get the panel’s opinion before making the decision. They’re not flying totally blind - the WHO put out its own recommendations on Friday - but it’s not clear whether drugmakers can start making flu shots based on the WHO’s suggestion or if they have to wait for the FDA’s green light. Drug manufacturers need time to make the vaccines, though, so pushing it much later than the end of March could mean delays in when shots are available.

The bottom line is that flu shot manufacturers are already working on them, and while they need some direction from the FDA soon, we expect plenty of flu shots to be available for the 2025-2026 flu season. We hope that on the heels of this year’s particularly rough flu season, more Americans will consider getting the shots to protect against severe illness.

Sources: Medpage Today, ABC

How contagious is measles, really?

Measles is one of the most contagious diseases out there. It’s sneaky - people are infectious for four days before the tell-tale red rash. It’s also durable, lingering in the air for up to two hours after an infectious person leaves a room. At a Special Olympics event, a sick athlete likely infected fans way up in the bleachers just by breathing, coughing, or sneezing down on the field below. Back in the early days of the COVID pandemic (or if you’ve recently seen the movie Contagion), you may remember hearing about the R0  (“R-naught”) value. That’s the number of people, on average, that one sick person infects. Flu’s average R0 is around 1, while COVID’s was about 3 before vaccines were available. Measles’ R0 ranges from 12 to 18 in an unvaccinated group. So just one sick kid in an unvaccinated community can infect over a dozen others, who each infect that many themselves. Particularly in areas with very low vaccination rates, like the community in West Texas where this current outbreak started, that means the “force of infection” is high because there are a lot of vulnerable children who are likely to catch the measles in a very short time. Texas went from 0 to 146 cases in just one month, and this thing is just getting started. Vaccination is the best firewall to prevent the spread.

We love this graphic from NPR that shows just how big of a difference vaccination can make in community spread. In a nutshell, measles is wildly contagious, and getting yourself and your kids vaccinated is the best way to stop it from running wild.

Sources: STAT, NPR

Best Read:

Egg prices are being driven up by the bird flu outbreak among laying hens. Corporate consolidation is a big part of what’s fueling costs - and the virus.

$5 a dozen: major egg companies may be using avian flu to hike US prices, new report finds - The Guardian