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It’s not yet official, but internal discussions at the CDC indicate that new guidance in the next few months will replace the current 5-day recommendation for those with COVID symptoms or a positive test. The new guidance will recommend that people who test positive use a symptoms-based approach to ending isolation. Once someone is fever-free without fever-reducing medications for 24 hours and their symptoms are “mild and improving,” they can return to work or school. This brings COVID guidance more in line with current symptoms-based recommendations for flu and RSV. Based on some internal memos, these may be announced by or before April. There are already strong reactions from some in the public health field that may influence the final recommendations, and we expect more information about OSHA implications before these go into effect, so changes aren’t imminent.
Source: Washington Post
Nothing has changed about the virus that causes COVID or how it’s transmitted. COVID is still dangerous and more deadly than the flu. 2300 Americans per week are still dying from it. What has changed is that vaccines and treatments are available (though uptake is still low), and hospitalizations are down from the peak of COVID (though 20,000 people per week are still hospitalized). CDC is making these changes in part to try to create guidelines that people will actually follow and to relieve some of the burden for workers without sick leave or child care for sick kids. This is more about human behaviors than about any changes to viral transmission.
Sources: Washington Post, CDC
Under these new guidelines, a positive COVID test wouldn’t necessarily exclude someone for a specific number of days. Instead, they would stay out until their symptoms were “mild and improving,” a subjective measure that will be hard for employers and workers to identify. Certainly, they’re out for at least two days if they have a fever since they must be a full 24-hours fever-free without fever-reducing meds, but beyond that, the new guidance is hard for employers to enforce. We expect that there will be more short work exclusions for two or three days and lots of extensions. The plus side is that more employees, especially asymptomatic positive ones or those with very mild symptoms, will miss fewer work days. The downside is that it will be harder for managers to predict how long an employee will be out to cover their scheduled shifts, there’s a higher risk for workplace outbreaks, and there are concerns around how colleagues and customers may feel if they find out an employee is working with COVID.
Sources: ZHH, Washington Post, CDC
COVID is still very infectious, and allowing people to work while COVID positive will almost certainly lead to additional viral transmission, though just how much is unknown. Oregon, which enacted similar rules in May, says it hasn’t seen significant increases in transmission. Those in favor of these relaxed rules point out that COVID transmission is already happening, and the goal is to create rules that people will actually follow. OSHA workplace transmission guidance may be subject to change since it refers back to the CDC’s COVID isolation recommendations, though how and when remain unclear.
Sources: ZHH, Washington Post, CDC
People are confused about when to take sick days, especially now that many are back to the office but worried about layoffs: